New Jersey State Finals Preview
Being primarily focused on the national scene, the nationwide landscape if you will, I’m mostly familiar with the guys I have ranked or have had ranked throughout the season. Of course rankings are just any one person’s opinion, and my opinion could be worth less than the paper this is written on, but I think highly of my opinion and I do have a fairly strong history of Nostradamus like clairvoyance. Like when it comes to betting on games. Which leads me to a side bar.
I saw someone in the NJ Wrestling Forum post hypothetical point spreads for the state finals. And I have to say I have mixed emotions. On the one hand, if someone offered actual bettable lines, I’d kill that. On the other hand, betting on high school sports seems a little low, even for me. On the third hand (that I grew from living close to a radiation leak) papa needs some brand new shoes. And let’s be all the way real here, keep it a buck, the tournament is in Atlantic City. Like, I should be able to walk down the boardwalk to like Bally’s, drop a couple racks on a parlay of Knox, James, and Ludington and then sit back and hear the ca-ching all the way home. One day.
Until that day, we have today. The day before the main event. The calm before the storm. And so we look at the weight classes and give some thoughts as to what we might see.
106
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: The clear top two in this weight are on the same side of the bracket. That’s unfortunate as that means we’ll see them in the semifinals and then someone will have to battle back for 3rd. Based on the season result, we would favor Coluccio just a little over Sontz. But we know freshmen often have big swings in performance and it wouldn’t even take a big swing to flip this one for Sontz. If this were the finals at 106, it would have been among the very best finals matches, maybe even the best one.
On the top half of the bracket, I think the 4, 5 quarterfinals should be a close one between Mason and DiBiase. And then the winner there should come out on top in the semifinals. The top seed Hildebrant is looking at a possible rematch with Greyson Petit, who pushed the Williamstown junior 10-7 in the Region 8 bracket. Whether it’s Petit or freshman Brody Neill (West Morris Central), could be an upset alert here.
There’s some history between the 8 and 9 seeds, where Alex Esposito beat Sipper for the Region 3 title.
I would be thoroughly surprised with anything but a Coluccio/Sontz champion and the other being 3rd. I’ll ride with Anthony Mason as the other finalist, knowing that the top side here is wide open. As for the rest of the top 8, impossible to know how the consolations all shake out.
I’m going with (14) Oumar Tounkara (Teaneck) to outpace his seed.
Predicted Semifinals:
113
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: The big favorite here is the world champ, 3 seed freshman Paul Kenny. His only losses on the year came to the same PA state champion – needless to say that means he won’t be in this field. And that means, we’d expect him to work his way all the way to the crown on Saturday.
There’s no season history between Kenny and the two seeded above him, however, he does have wins over McGinty, Borrometi, and Gould. His best win on the season was over an Ohio state champion, Ethan Timar (would be favored to win this bracket himself). But, some of the matches – like Borrometi – were close. And nothing is ever really certain here.
Nate Braun was a finalist last year and should make at least the semifinals here. Almost all of this group was in the 106 bracket last year, where Braun beat Borrometi and DeAngelo. McGinty beat DiAndrea and Gould and Borrometi beat McGinty en route to 3rd.
Borrometi has had a solid season, though he did just suffer a loss to Anthony Urso in the Region 6 finals. They could run that back if they each win their first two matches. For Urso, that would mean a win over McGinty. Oddly enough, Urso is slated to wrestle back to back McGinty’s.
Hagensen’s only in-state loss this season was to Kurt Wehner, but Wehner is at 120. I don’t see any reason to believe we won’t get the freshman Kenny against the senior Hagensen in the semis.
I got (14) Amari Vann (Delsea) as the low seed most likely to reach the podium.
Predicted Semifinals:
120
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: I mean there’s not much to say here other than Knox is without a doubt the heaviest betting favorite to win his bracket – again, if betting were offered.
The intrigue is almost entirely about who gets to face him in the finals and who comes out in the battle for 3rd.
With no Dan Jones (Delbarton) in this field, we won’t get a rematch of last year’s finals. So it’ll be someone new to take their shot at the king.
While last year doesn’t mean much for this year (unless you’re seeding this tournament then it’s like everything), Wehner did major Bautista in the consolations in 2023. Wehner would finish 5th, Bautista would be eliminated there. Gotta figure he gets the win again.
On the top side, I like Brzozowski to reach Knox in the semis.
Man, I don’t know what it is about these 14 seeds, but I like Christian Brothers Robert Duffy as yet another to push for a top 8 finish from outside that group..
Predicted Semifinals:
126
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: Spaulding is a very worthy top seed and comes into Atlantic City as the favorite here, having beat DeGeorge already this season. That was at Beast of the East where he also beat Weber. He’s got a win over Paino and a very solid win over O’Keefe (up at 132).
DeGeorge has been improving all season and I’m sure would love nothing more than get a 2nd crack at Spaulding. And I suppose that could happen in the consolations somewhere, they’d both prefer it be in the finals. Delbarton had among the toughest schedules in the country and freshmen like DeGeorge are the beneficiaries of those challenges. He has a solid 7-1 win over Paino this year.
While Paino does have losses to the 2 seeded above him, I could see either one flipping here in Atlantic City. I think that semifinals with DeGeorge will be among the most anticipated.
On the top half, I could make a case for a few guys to reach Spaulding in the semis. I give a slight edge to Perez.
As for the longer shots to make medal runs, look for the top 2 from Region 4, Zach Beadling and Mason Tettambel.
Predicted Semifinals:
132
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: Just perusing the New Jersey weight classes this season, you might be inclined to say Knox, or Harvey Ludington are the biggest favorites in their brackets. But it shouldn’t be overlooked how much ahead of the field DeJesus is as well. He was a 3rd place medalist at Super 32 and I’m not sure who is ready to really challenge him this weekend.
His closest win all season was Chase Quenalt. Perhaps Quenalt makes his way to the finals and gets a chance to reverse that outcome. He’ll have to get past Carson Walsh and then likely Bryce Manera to make that happen. And he could, his schedule has been salty and that usually helps sharpen one’s skill heading into the final event of the year.
Manera has a nice out of state win, Camden Baum, and has had himself a pretty competitive schedule. Though he did suffer a pair of losses you wouldn’t have expected, AJ Falcone and Blake Reihner. Falcone being the only in-state loss for Manera this season.
Walsh has had a solid season in his own right, losing only to Caedyn Ricciardi from inside the state. Of course Ricciardi is up at 138 to end the season. His best win was over O’Keefe (5-2).
I think this weight has a clear pecking order, but one that should play out in highly competitive fashion. DeJesus is the favorite and deservedly so. Walsh I give the edge over Manera but that semis match up should be one of the best of the round, maybe of any round of the tournament. I think O’Keefe gets the nod over Schinina but that’s also a really solid quarterfinals match up.
I think freshmen have a tendency to get underseeded and overlooked here so for my long shot to crash the party, I’m eyeing Eric Swanson (Camden Catholic).
Predicted Semifinals:
138
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: There are probably 3 weights in contention for “best finals of the tournament”. This is one of them. Interestingly, they all involve a Delbarton wrestler. And at this weight, it involves a Delbarton wrestler still looking for his first title.
Last year, James freshman campaign was cut short in the semifinals in what could only be described as highly debatable fashion. You need a leg in for a Merkle. Repeat that 100 times. Thanks. Anyway, James is back this year probably even more of a favorite than last to win this championship. At least that was until Caedyn Ricciardi moved up.
Spending a bit of the season nursing various ailments, Ricciardi comes to Atlantic City as the top challenger to Jayden’s title run. And he could absolutely pull it off. He spent the first part of the year at 132, and picked up some of the best national wins for anyone in the state. Up at 138, he hasn’t lost yet. Though the schedule lightened up some for him since then. Needless to say, James poses the biggest test for him by far.
As for the rest of the top 8 seeds, I don’t see a real title contender, though I could be wrong for sure. But I do see a handful of viable 3-8 guys that should make for some entertaining battles on the backside for those who appreciate hard fought blood rounds and medal matches.
Out of that group, I like Ross, Almeyda, and Scafidi to be in the mix for 3rd. I would also mention Blase Mele as someone who could make a deep run. He has the best wins of this bunch but he also just lost to Scafidi at the Region 5 finals.
The biggest longshot outside the top 8 to possibly reach the podium to me is (18) Scottie Sari (Southern).
Predicted Semifinals:
144
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: One of the toughest brackets top to bottom in my opinion is also led by one of the state’s best wrestlers at any weight. I think Nini is expected to be the 3rd champion for Christian Brothers and should get that done. As we look around the rest of the tournament, that would likely give them the most of any team. Of course, as we discussed at 106, that’s a true toss up in the semifinals so we’ll see how it unfolds.
Amato is the freshman phenom type. He’s been as high as 16th in my national rankings and comes in just outside the top 25. I think he could definitely end the season back in that mix and might be the very obstacle to get in the way of Nini’s senior title run.
I’m jumping down to the 6 seed, Auggie Hibler as he to me is a title contender here. I guess he doesn’t have criteria to be seeded higher, but 6 is laughable. Of course, for match up purposes, 6 is as good as 3 really. Then it’s facing the 2 in the semis. That’s what I expect. He’s been in the top 15 all year. He didn’t get to compete for Bergen through the post season a year ago and that was part of a whole circle of drama surrounding that program last February. Things seem to be more stable this go round.
Myers hasn’t quite got over the hump with a ranked win, but he’s been as close as it gets. Pushing Billy Dekraker into OT, losing to Amato 3-2. He’s right on the heels of these other guys and maybe it all comes together for him at the right time. He’ll get Hibler in the quartefinals.
Reilley and Geleta had what could only be described as a classic battle for 5th last year. It went to Reilly, but the 14-12 barn burner in sudden victory has us hoping to see this one again. Though on opposite sides, it’s most likely for 3rd or 5th again.
I’m going with (20) Reid Clausi (West Essex Regional) as the long shot placer.
Predicted Semifinals:
150
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: We just had the CA state finals a week ago, and that one had 150 as the best bracket. Looking at New Jersey this week, it seems to be the same here. I would say this easily the best bracket. The highest number of national caliber wrestlers, they’re all super close to each other so there’s no one totally outmanned, and there’s even more beyond them who have shown championship level mettle in their careers.
I’ve had Hawk the highest of this group most recently. I think that was solidified when Logan beat Ballante in that dual.
But then Ballante beat Hawk last week and now we have what we have. Ballante made noise down at Elite 8, where he racked up 3 top 15 national wins. Of course the season is long and there’s almost always slip ups along the way, but he has the best resume coming in.
Then there’s Logan, a freshman from Delbarton who has the win over Ballante head to head and might have the highest ceiling of the bunch.
Then there’s Fuller who has been ranked atop the state almost all year. He had been undefeated in the state, with a lone loss to Chase Hontz at Beast. And then he was upset in the region finals by Farina. Wasn’t enough to knock him off the top line but might indicate a vulnerability where he should see Farina again in the quarterfinals this weekend.
The (10) Nick Villani undefeated this season but might be more untested in terms of championship level competition. On the flipside, Trevor Jones has taken on a tremendous schedule and has the blemishes to show for it but could be primed to step up here. I think they each present their own case for being that outside the top 8 possible medalist.
Predicted Semifinals:
157
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: I definitely expect to see a Henrich vs Ford finals but there are some possible traps for each that could keep that from happening. Henrich is a returning state champion. Ford finished 4th last year.
Of course for Henrich and Ford, those biggest tests will likely come from DiBella and Jones respectively.
Don’t let the 8 losses for DiBella fool you. They’ve come against quality competition and some in heartbreaking fashion. He does have wins over Betz and Nevlin but then a loss to Ford. Hard to see him pulling the Henrich upset but we shall see. Last year, DiBella finished 4th owing to a back and forth battle with Delbarton’s Cross Wasilewski.
Kage has had a solid season that includes a win over Ford head to head. The issue is that he’s also taken a couple losses that make you scratch your head. He’s definitely capable of knocking down the door of the top 25 but he could get tripped up by Betz in the quarters. You just don’t know.
Nick Campagna made his debut in exhilarating fashion, in the Southern dual. He just faced Henrich in the Region 7 finals and could make that a lot closer in this setting.
Betz is yet another Green Wave wrestler racking up the quality matches, win and lose, that comes with their season. So perhaps he has something up his singlet sleeve for Jones in the quarters. That would set up a match with Ford in the semis.
I’m pointing to (14) Omar Tarecky (Passaic Co Tech) as the long shot medalist.
Predicted Semifinals:
165
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: Another weight with a returning state champion, Perentin is the favorite, and my pick to win this, but this is also another candidate for the “main event” match up so to speak. While Perentin was the 157 champion last year, Chapman finished 3rd in that bracket and has been on a climb up national rankings since then.
Perentin’s lone losses on the year came against Joe Sealey (I mean, duh, Sealey) and Asher Cunningham. No one across the country has risen as much as Cunningham this season. But aside from those results, Perentin has even hardly been tested.
Chapman like Perentin suffered an out of state loss, but he also picked up 3 hugely impressive wins. Perhaps you wouldn’t say any of them are individually as good as Perentin but they’re close and shows the level Chapman is competing at.
The gap between the top 2 and the rest here is pretty sizable. I think it would be shocking for anything but a Perentin Chapman final. However, I like someone a bit off the radar to finish 3rd after a “surprising” run to the semifinals. That’s 11 seed Tanner Hodgins (Howell). He’s been on the cusp of national rankings and as a freshman I guess is being penalized because for some reason NJSIAA still doesn’t know what to do with them. His best win is over nationally ranked Kendrick Hodge and up until a bout with Perentin at Regionals, he was undefeated in the state.
As for another dark horse medalist, let’s go with another 14 seed, this time Riley Boos of Delsea. He’s the Region 8 champ, and maybe that counts for something in a big moment.
Predicted Semifinals:
175
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: It never gets easier in this sport. After Cerchio picked up state title #1 as a junior, it was all but certain he’d be back for the double up. And now, we have an entirely new favorite at the weight who emerged this season. I mentioned at 157 that Asher Cunningham is among the biggest risers from last year to this one. Ryan Burton is probably that guy in New Jersey. And it’s not like he wasn’t great last year, he finished 3rd. But the level jumping he’s gone through this season has been remarkable.
The story of the year here has been the two head to head matches between the top 2. And the reason Burton is the top seed and the favorite here is that he’s won both of them, most recently by fall. Of course we don’t expect a fall again, we do recognize the task at hand for Cerchio to turn the tables when the lights are brightest.
For my money (and with the way I’ll be winning these hypothetical bets, it’ll be a lot more money), this should be the final match of the evening.
Brunetti is undefeated on the year but looking at the schedule, they didn’t really travel much and in the new age with kids taking on top out of state competition, Hunterdon didn’t really do that. This will be quite the jump for him, for them.
Terreri was the Region 4 finalist against Brunetti. Losing 5-4. Perhaps demonstrating the gap between the top 2 and the rest, Terreri also faced Burton twice this season, losing both by first period fall.
I’ll say Brock Oizerowitz (Christian Brothers) is the one to break into that top 8. As the 10 seed though it’s not such a long shot.
Predicted Semifinals:
190
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: LaValle had a successful off season, in particular Fargo. That put him on the national map. Then he went to Super 32 and took a couple of unranked losses and he’s sort of been hovering around that top 25 range ever since.
Meanwhile, this is probably the biggest favorite in the state. Ludington is a state champion, not from last year but the year before. Last year, he decided to go after the senior state champ in Simon Ruiz and what that gave us was a classic finals for the ages really. Now, Ruiz is gone and there really is no threat to Ludington left. And to think, he has another whole year left to go.
Aside from LaValle, Bienus is a solid pick to reach the finals. He has a loss to Harvey but was a respectable 7-3. He’s split the season series 1-1 with LaValle. Should be among the best semifinals of the tournament if they meet for the rubber match.
Rella’s best performance was probably reaching the Beast finals. Unfortunately, Harvey made those same finals and beat him by fall. Otherwise, Rella picked up head to head wins over Jackson and Mattessich. There’s nothing in his season results to suggest to me he won’t make the semis. But that looks to be where the championship run ends.
If the theme for my dark horse selections isn’t the 14 seed, then perhaps it’s Delsea. How many from Delsea? Well here’s yet another. The 20 seed Salvatore Marchese is a sophomore, Region 8 champ. But a 20 seed. We’ll see.
Predicted Semifinals:
215
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: I think this is the weight where the wrestler with the highest national rank is the lowest. Of course, it’s hurt by Anthony Harris being out, as well as Aidan Schlett. This opens the door for a Vinnie Lee Hudson Skove collision in the finals and then that finals match up should be highly competitive.
We just saw a round 1 in the Region 5 finals, Lee came out on top of that one, hence the top seed here. He’s also of course another Delbarton kid having faced one of the toughest schedules possible. Lee also has wins over French and DeLuca.
While I think Lee gets the rematch in the finals this weekend, Skove is definitely a quality foe.
Xavier Williams has wins over Faxon and DeLuca.
Faxon has a win over Christie.
I like junior Ben Szuba of Brick Memorial to challenge for a spot from his 14 seed.
Predicted Semifinals:
285
Top 8 Seeds:
Thoughts: There really isn’t anyone in the state this year to challenge the younger Dellagatta. His brother Michael went out with a state title last year, and now Rocco looks to match that performance. He’s already got two wins over Shue, and one over Martin and Wargo.
Shue is my pick to reach the finals from the bottom half. Toranzo picked up the win head to head in the Region 3 finals but now on the big stage I think he steps up and gets the revenge in the semis.
As for the semis opponent for Dellagatta, if that comes down to Wargo and Elyash, Wargo holds the advantage over him via a 1 point decision. I suppose that could go either way.
I have Mason Brancato of Pompton Lakes as someone outside the top 8 to keep an eye on.
Predicted Semifinals:
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